How Grades Work

Not every shot is worth the same. A three at league-average accuracy is worth more than a long two, and getting to the free-throw line adds easy points. We measure each player's shot diet:

• 3PT attempt rate: share of his shots that are threes
• Free throw rate: free throws earned per shot attempt

Then we ask: if an average NBA shooter took exactly these shots, how many points per shot would they score? Players with smart diets score above the league; heavy two-point-jumper diets score below. Whether he actually makes them is covered separately by shooting efficiency.

Our box scores don't separate rim attempts from mid-range twos, so all two-pointers are treated as one shot type.

Players are grouped as guards, forwards or centers. Each game, we look at how the other team's players in his group shot (effective FG%, which counts threes as 1.5 makes) compared with how those same players normally shoot.

If opposing guards usually shoot 54% and only hit 48% that night, the team's guards receive shared credit, weighted by minutes played. Shooting above normal lowers the score instead. Matchup shooting now carries five times its previous weight, while rebounds, steals, blocks and plus-minus count less. Small samples are pulled toward zero so one great night doesn't define a player.

A matchup eFG% increase of 5.4 percentage points across six games costs about 5.9 defensive impact points before the playing-time adjustment. Defensive grades still rank those impact scores against the league; this is not a fixed subtraction from the displayed grade.

This is an estimate: switches, zone defense and help rotations mean a player doesn't always guard his own position, and teammates share the credit.

Bars on player pages compare him with qualified NBA players (3+ games, 15+ MPG). A 90 means he's better than 90% of them.

• Scoring: points per game
• Shot selection: value of his shot diet (above)
• Shooting efficiency: true shooting %
• Playmaking: assists ×1.5 minus turnovers per game, so careless ball-handlers rank lower
• Rebounding: rebounds per game
• Defense: his full defensive grade (matchups, steals, blocks, rebounds, fouls)

Team offense ranks points scored per game, with more points earning a higher grade. Team defense ranks points allowed per game, with fewer points earning a higher grade. Each uses the same 40–99 percentile scale as players, calculated from completed games and refreshed nightly. Teams without completed games show no offense or defense grade.

These are scoring-based estimates, not possession-adjusted offensive or defensive ratings. Pace, overtime, opponent strength and small samples can affect them.

Team Truth Rating remains based on average point differential (×1.5) and win percentage, starting at 70 and limited to 40–99; the player 60/40 blend does not replace this team formula.